基于扰动—轨迹交叉事故致因理论模型的城市交叉口安全分析

Urban Safety Analysis on Intersections Based on the Accident-causing Theoretical Model of Perturbation and Tracks Crossing Theories

交叉口是路网的重要节点,交叉口中人、车交通流汇集,交通状况复杂,容易发生交通事故。在基于扰动起源论(P理论)的基础上,引入轨迹交叉论深入研究,建立基于扰动—轨迹交叉事故致因理论模型,该理论模型指出了交通参与者的不安全行为和车辆、道路的不安全状态是交叉口系统产生扰动的直接原因,而不安全行为和不安全状态的时空交叉导致交通事故的发生。以山丹县五岔口为例进行分析得出,该理论模型能显著提升事故致因理论的科学性,全面分析交叉口事故致因,同时对事故预防提供操作依据,进而采取针对性措施防止交通事故的发生,加强交叉口安全管理。

The intersection is an important hub for road net- work, the traffic flow of human and vehicles collect in the in- tersection, traffic condition is complicated, that easily happens traffic accident, on the basis of perturbation occurs theory （Ptheory）, introducing the theory of tracks crossing theory con- ducts in-depth study, an accident-causing theoretical model of perturbation and tracks crossing theories is founded. This the- oretical model points out that the direct cause of disturbance in the intersection system is the unsafe behavior of traffic participants and the unsafe condition of the vehicle and road, and, the time and space intersection of unsafe behavior and unsafe condition leads to the occurrence of traffic accidents. Taking Shandan county five-way intersection as an example to analyze concludes that, the theory can significantly improve the scientific nature of the accident causing theory, compre- hensively analyze the cause of the intersection accident, and provide scientific operational basis for accident prevention. And then, taking countermeasures to prevent the occurrence of traffic accidents, strengthening the safety management of inter- section.