金沙江流域降水径流趋势分析

Analysis on the Variation Trend of Rainfall-runoff on the Jinshajiang Basin

根据金沙江流域1956~2014共59年的降水、径流资料系列,采用线性回归趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Spearman秩次相关检验、Kendall秩次相关检验方法对此进行趋势检验,结果表明流域：（1）降水系列呈减小趋势,平均线性递减率为-0.0278mm/a,但减小趋势并不显著;（2）径流深系列呈下降趋势,平均线性递减率为-0.2655mm/a,但下降趋势不显著;（3）径流系数系列基本没有变化,平均线性递减率为-0.0004mm/a。

Based on the annual precipitation and runoff on the Jinshajiang basin from 1956~2014,the change trend of them was statistically analysed using linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall and Spearman rank correlation test,and moving average method.The results show that：（1）The annual precipitation showed a weak trend of decline with a climate tendency of-0.0278mm/（a）;（2）The annual runoff showed a weak trend of decline with a climate tendency of-0.2655mm/（a）;（3）The annual runoff coefficient showed a weak trend of rise with a climate tendency of-0.0004/（a）.