经济发展阶段、结构变迁与资源诅咒

Stages of Economic Development,Structural Change and Resource Curse

为了解释资源诅咒原理在现实中表现的不一致性,将经济发展阶段因素引入以构建自然资源禀赋影响经济发展的理论框架。理论框架的逻辑结论表明,在工业化初期,丰富的自然资源通过初级产品贸易促进经济结构的非农化变迁,成为经济发展的资源福祉;而在工业化初期之后,丰富的自然资源则通过"荷兰病"等机制阻碍经济结构变迁,成为经济发展的资源诅咒。基于我国省际数据的统计分析显示,经济较为落后的省份表现为资源福祉,而经济较为发达的省份则遭遇资源诅咒,实证分析结果与理论框架的逻辑是一致的。通过对经济结构的动态监测,可以将对资源诅咒的事后监测转变为过程监测,以利于采取相应项措施避免资源诅咒;政府应致力于产业结构的高级化和合理化,资源丰富区域在资源福祉期应为经济结构转型升级做好准备。

In order to explain the inconsistency of resource curse principle in reality, this paper brings economic development stage factor into the theoretical framework of the impact of constructing natural resource endowment on economic development. The logic conclusion of the theoretical framework shows that at the initial stage of industrialization, abundant natural resources promote economic structural non-agricultural change through primary product trade and become the resource blessedness of economic development, after the beginning stage, however, the rich natural resources hinder economic structural change through such mechanisms as ＂Dutch disease＂ and then become resource curse of the development. The statistical data based on 31 provinces of China show that the less-developed provinces have resources blessedness but the higher-developed provinces encounter resource curse, and empirical analysis results are consistent with the theoretical framework logic. By the dynamic supervision on economic structure, the supervision on resource curse should be changed from ＂afterward supervision＂ to ＂process supervision＂, which is conducive to taking measures to avoid resource curse. The governments should make efforts to upgrade and rationalize the industrial structure, and the areas with abundant resources should make preparation for the transition and upgrading of economic structure at the blessedness stage.