1979—2013年南大洋海冰变化特征及与典型气候变化因子的相关性分析

VARIATION OF SEA ICE IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN AND ANALYSIS OF ITS CORRELATION WITH TYPICAL CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS DURING 1979—2013

全球气候变化导致的南大洋海冰变化已引起广泛关注,基于近35年来该区域海冰覆盖范围的时空变化规律,运用Pearson相关和聚类分析等方法,探讨多元厄尔尼诺指数(MEI)、海洋尼诺指数(ONI)以及臭氧空洞面积气候变化因素与海冰覆盖范围的关系。南大洋海冰呈1.1%(±0.6%)小幅度增长,近5年印度洋海域海冰增长最快。1—6月别林斯高晋/阿蒙森海域、6—9月和11月威德尔海域海冰的多年变化趋势均为负增长。在南大洋5大片区中海冰与气候变化因子的关系不同,其中ONI影响别林斯高晋/阿蒙森、威德尔、印度洋、罗斯海海域;MEI主要影响印度洋和罗斯海海域;臭氧空洞主要影响罗斯海和威德尔海域。海冰变化对气候变化的响应存在不同程度的滞后性。

Changes in the extent of Southern Ocean sea ice caused by global climate change have caused widespread con- cern. Based on nearly 35 years＇ data of the temporal and spatial variations of sea ice extent, the Pearson correla- tion and cluster analysis techniques were used to explore its relationship with the Multivariate ENSO Index （MEI）, Oceanic Nino Index （ONI）, and the area of the ozone hole. A small increase 1.1% （ ±0.6% ） was found in the extent of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and the sea ice of the Indian Ocean was found to have grown fastest during the past 5 years. The muhiyear trend of sea ice in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen seas was found to be negative in January--June, similar to the trend in the Weddell Sea in June--September and in November. Different relation- ships were found between the extent of sea ice in five sea areas and climate change factors. For example, the ON1 mainly influences the Bellingshausen/Amundsen, Weddell, Ross seas and the Indian Ocean and the Ross Sea; and the ozone hole influences the Ross lag were found between sea ice extent and climate change. the Indian Ocean; the MEI influences and Weddell seas. Different degrees of