需求不确定下闭环供应链动态产能规划研究

Research on Dynamic Capacity Planning for Closed-loop Supply Chain under Uncertain Demand

制造商对回收的产品实施再制造,形成生产和再制造并存的模式,使闭环供应链系统呈现出复杂的动态行为。面对需求的不确定,如何进行动态的产能规划显得尤为重要。利用系统动力学方法对一个制造商和一个零售商构成的两级闭环供应链系统进行建模及仿真研究。通过分析系统复杂的动态行为及其对系统供应链绩效的影响发现,为实现供应链系统利润的最大化,制造商进行动态产能规划时不仅要考虑自身所拥有产能的水平,也要考虑再制造比例的影响。

When Original Equipment Manufacturer implements a remanufacturing process with the recycled products, the closed -loop supply chain system in which production is integrated with the remanufacturing activity shows complex dynamical behavior. Under uncertain demand, how OEM making dynamic capacity planning was particularly important. In this paper, System Dynamics was used for modeling and simulating the closed - loop sup- ply chain system that is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Through the analysis of the complex dynam- ical behavior of the system and its effect on system supply chain performance, we found that to maximize the profit of supply chain system, OEM for dynamic capacity planning should not only consider his own capacity level, but al- so the effect of remanufacturing proportion.