全球供应链视角下我国“走出去”战略的新常态

The New Normal of Chinese“Go Global”Strategy from the Perspective of Global Supply Chain

经济发展新常态背景下,我国对外经贸"走出去"战略也势必进入新常态。为分析我国对外直接投资(ODI)在全球供应链上的战略地位转变,文章选取2003-2013年中国对东盟和欧盟的ODI及贸易面板数据,通过构建双向投资贸易引力模型进行实证检验。实证结果显示:我国对东盟ODI的贸易替代效应显著,对欧盟ODI的贸易互补效应显著,说明东盟国家逐渐成为供应链下游的重要销售市场,欧盟国家则更多地表现为上游的技术提供方。进而,提出根据区域差异调整我国"走出去"战略的相关建议。

With China＇s economic development stepping into the new normal phase,China＇s foreign trade and economic development is bound to enter the new normal. In order to analyze the strategic shift of China＇s ODI position on the globalsupply chain,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the trade effects of China＇s ODI to ASEAN and EU,through build-ing two-way investment and trade gravity model,selecting the panel data of China-EU and China-ASEAN from 2003 to2013. The empirical results show that China＇s ODI to ASEAN is negatively correlated with both export and import;whereas China＇s ODI to EU has a positive effect on import but has no significant effect on export. According to the qualitativeand quantitative analysis,the ASEAN countries from resource provider in the upstream of supply chain into the major marketin the downstream of supply chain;whereas EU countries,the important export market of China,is gradually becoming China＇s technology provider in the upstream of supply chain. Accordingly,the paper puts forth the relevant suggestions on adjust-ing Chinese＂going global＂strategy based on the regional difference.