摘要
文章利用HP滤波方法界定出中国生产性服务业增长率与整体经济增长率波动周期,初步刻画出生产性服务业的经济波动效应情况。在此基础上借助中国1978-2014年30个省、市、自治区面板数据,采用多种估计方法进一步估计生产性服务业发展对经济波动的作用方向。研究结果表明:生产性服务业波动与中国经济波动整体上具有同步性,并且二者在1990年后均具有波动周期短、波动幅度大的特点;生产性服务业发展对经济波动具有稳定器作用,但是整体经济的大幅波动不利于生产性服务业稳定发展。认为,在当前增长减缓时期,政府应该重视生产性服务业发展,使生产性服务业融合到制造业生产链条中,发挥生产性服务业对经济波动的缓冲作用。
The paper uses HP filter method to measure the growth rate of Chinese producer services,Chinese overall economicgrowth rate fluctuation cycle,and the effect of fluctuations of producer services. On this basis,according to the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative areas in China from 1978 to 2014,the paper employs a variety of estimation methods to investigate theinfluence of producer services on economic fluctuations. The results show that the two fluctuations are synchronous,and since 1990 they have shown a short periodicity and large amplitudes;The development of producer services has a stabilizing effect on economicfluctuations,while substantial fluctuations in the overall economy are detrimental to the stability of producer services. In this paper,we argue that the government should pay attention to the development of producer services,integrate it to the production chain andutilize it as a cushion to economic fluctuations during the current period of slowdown growth in economy.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第11期109-113,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY030)
安徽省社会科学规划基金青年项目(AHSKQ2015D26)
安徽省高校人文社会科学重点项目(SK2016A0085)
