中国的产能过剩及其衡量方法

China's Over-capacity and Measures for Capacity Utilization

金融危机以来,中国外贸需求持续疲软,经济增长逐步放缓,在经济发展过程中存在的结构性问题逐渐凸显,一些行业陆续面临产能过剩的风险。产能过剩带来资源浪费,促使企业利润收缩,导致社会风险集聚,甚至可能引发恶性竞争和贸易摩擦。本文综述了文献中关于企业产能利用率的主要衡量方法,并重点总结了关于中国产能过剩问题的起因和影响的研究结论。进而,本文指出:(1)文献中通常采用的函数法和包络分析法对生产效率的界定不同、估计出的产能利用率并不可比,且函数法估计值更接近产能利用率的定义;(2)中国各行业的产能利用率和经济波动密切相关,但同时也受其他制度和结构性因素的影响。

Financial Crisis ended up with a run on the US-led Western nations, and resulted in their economy anemic and demand for imported goods weakened. Meanwhile, China＇s trade took a sharp drop and even had a negative growth in 2015. As one of the three driving forces enabling China＇s growth miracle, net export of commodity and service plays a key role for China＇s economic growth. So with the decline in China＇s foreign trade growth, China＇s economy has gradually turned to the New Normal state, and structural problems become more and more obvious. Some industries are faced with the risk of over-capacity, which leads to waste, profit contracting, risk, malignant competition and trade conflicts. This paper reviews main measures on capacity utilization in literature and focuses on studies on the reason for China＇s over-capacity and its influence. We find that： 1）the frequently used estimates based on production function and data envelopment analysis are not comparable, as they provide different definition on production efficiency. Estimates based on production function are more close to the definition of capacity utilization; 2）China＇s industrial capacity utilization rates are closely related to economic fluctuation. What＇s more, institutional and structural factors also have an effect on it.