气候变化下我国蔓藓属(Meteorium)适生分布的预测

Predictions of suitable distribution of Meteorium in China under climate change

基于我国蔓藓属6种166个地理分布记录和19个生物气候变量,利用ArcGIS和Maxent模型预测、比较不同气候情景下该属物种适生区及其变化,以期为气候变化对苔藓植物地理分布的影响提供科学依据.结果表明:气温年变化范围、最冷季度平均气温、温度季节性变化(标准差)和最热月最高气温是影响我国蔓藓属分布的主要气候因子.在近代气候条件下,蔓藓属的适生分布区集中在秦岭淮河以南的各省大部分地区.在未来气候情景下(21世纪50年代和21世纪70年代),蔓藓属适生分布区均将略微减少,分别将是近代气候情景下适生区面积的94.48%和95.78%.

According to 166 geographic distribution records of six Meteorium species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the present study employed both Maximum entropy （Maxent） model and the spatial analysis methods in the ArcGIS 10.2 to predict the potential distribution of Meteorium in China and compare the range size of each projection under different climate scenarios, in order to provide scientific evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change for bryophytes＇ distribution. The results showed that temperature annual range, mean temperature of coldest quarter, temperature seasonality （standard deviation ＊100） and max temperature of warmest month were the major factors influencing the distribution of Meteorium in China. Under current climate condition, the suitable distribution of Meteorium located in large parts of southern Qin Ling and Huai River. While in future climate scenarios （i.e. 2050s and 2070s）, both of the ranges were predicted to decrease slightly. It will become 94.48% and 95.78% of the current suitable area in 2050s and 2070s, respectively.