秦岭大坪峪川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)种群生存力分析

Population viability analysis of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in the Dapingyu region of the Qinling Mountains,China

小种群的保护已成为保护生物学中一个重要的问题,鉴于小种群极易灭绝的特性,寻找制约小种群存活的关键因子,形成快速拯救的措施,是目前对于小种群进行保护十分迫切的任务。根据秦岭大坪峪地区2个川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)种群连续5a的观察数据,参照群体大小、配偶体制、迁移扩散、环境容纳量、死亡率、灾害的发生频率等种群参数,并结合川金丝猴其他种群的研究结果,利用旋涡模型(Vortex 10.0),对猴群未来100a内的数量动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明,在没有个体迁移的情况下,大坪峪种群种群100a间灭绝概率为95.8%和93%;当存在个体迁移和扩散的情况,灭绝概率为2%和0.4%。因此种群间个体迁移是秦岭大坪峪川金丝猴种群数量动态的限制因子。鉴于此,增加川金丝猴大坪峪种群间的个体交流,能够保证本群川金丝猴长期生存所需的遗传多样性。同时,增加秦岭川金丝猴各种群间的个体交流,建立群间的生境走廊对这一世界性濒危物种的长期存活具有重要的现实意义。

Small population protection has become an important conservation biology issue because small populations can easily become extinct. Investigating the constraints on small populations and setting up rescue measures are very important tasks in small population protection. Population Viability Analysis （PVA） is the analytical estimation of extinction probabilities. It incorporates identifiable threats to population survival into models of the extinction process. Computer simulation modeling （Vortex） is a tool that can be used to explore the viability of populations subjected to many complex, interacting, deterministic, and random processes. In this study, we investigated the population viability of a troop of Siehuan snub-nosed monkeys （Rhinopithecus roxellana ）, which are located in the Dapingyu region of the Qinling Mountains, central China. In the winter of 2009, this troop of golden monkey naturally separated into two groups, which were named DPY1 and DPY2. From 2011 to 2015, DPY1 was monitored and data on population size, migration, reproductive system, reproductive rate, mortality rate, mate monopolization, carrying capacity, catastrophes, and harvesting were collected. The DPY2 group was allowed to live individuals were recorded. Based on the information collected, in their natural environment and only data on the number of we used the computer program Vortex 10.0 to simulate the population viability of the Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys in the Dapingyu region. The results suggested that, in the absence of individual migration, the two groups, which had naturally separated from a larger local troop, have 95.8% and 93% possibilities, respectively, of becoming extinct over the next 100 years. When individual migration between the two groups is established, the extinction possibilities can be reduced to 2% and 0.4%. These results suggest that individual migration seems to be the primary limiting factor on long-term troop survival in the Dapingyu region. Therefore, increasing the individual exchange frequency between the groups and making the gene mutation rate equal to the gene loss rate should be encouraged if the long-term survival of this troop of golden monkeys is to protection of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys in the Qinling Mountains corridors connecting a population to its surrounding populations. improve. Furthermore, programs for improving the should concentrate on protecting and improving