电网调度操作过程中的天气风险源建模及分析

Weather Risk Sources Quantified Model and Analysis for Power Grid Dispatching

天气是电网调度操作本身面临的主要风险因素之一.本文对电网调度操作过程中天气风险源的辨识与建模问题进行研究,建立了能够全面反映气温、风速、降雨量、能见度、相对湿度和雷电危险度等六类气象因子的天气风险源量化模型,在此基础上引入信息熵理论来实时客观地定量描述前述六类气象因子的综合作用值,并依据气象因子相对设定值的越限情况,采用线性惩罚函数对气象熵值予以修正,最终定义形成综合气象因子,用以定量辨识天气风险源对调度操作的影响.最后,基于广州市电网的实际算例对本文所提模型的有效性进行了验证,结果表明,本文建立的天气风险源量化辨识模型能够科学和客观地体现操作设备所处片区的实际天气状态,且能够精细化评估多种气象因子为电网实际调度带来的潜在风险.通过将该模型与数值天气预报系统的对接,大大提高了电网调度操作风险辨识的自动化水平.目前,该模型已在广东电网获得实际应用.

Weather is one of the main risk factor in power grid dispatching operation. In this paper, it studied how to identify and establish a model of weather risk sources during power grid dispatching operation. A qualified weather risk sources model was established, which six meteorological factors of reflect temperature, wind speed, visibility, rainfall, relative humidity, thunder and lightning harm degree. Information entropy theory had been introduced to weigh the comprehensive impact of these six meteorological factors in real-time objectively and quantitatively. Linear penalty function had been used in amending meteorological entropy value to define comprehensive meteorological factors, which could quantify the influence of weather risk sources on dispatching operation. Finally, the model＇s validity was verified based on the practical calculation of Guangzhou City, the results showed that the model could reflect the actual weather situation of the device being operated area and accurately assess the potential risk which multiple meteorological factors on power grid dispatching operation. Through the joint between the model and numerical weather prediction, automation level of risk sources identification in power grid dispatching operation was enhanced greatly. So far, the model had been put in use in Guangdong Power Grid.