气候变化背景下济南市长清区干旱灾害风险评价研究

Risk Assessment of Drought Disaster in Changqing District of Ji'nan City under the Background of Climate Change

综合干旱类型,从致灾因子的危险性、敏感性、易损性及防灾减灾能力4个指标出发,分析气候变化背景下的山东省济南市长清区干旱灾害风险变化。结果表明,长清区干旱危险性分布特征总体表现为由西北向东南递减的趋势;干旱灾害孕灾体敏感性总体呈现出由西南向东北递减的趋势;干旱灾害易损性分布基本以行政区为单位,高易损性分布在除平安街道办事处外的西部地区;干旱灾害的防灾减灾能力总体呈现东北高、西南低的分布特征;干旱综合风险性呈现西南高、东北低的分布规律。

According to drought types, using 4 indicators of hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, the change of drought disaster risk was analyzed in the context of climate change in changqing district,Ji′ nan city, Shandong province. The results showed that, in changqing district, drought hazard overall decreased from the northwest to the southeast. Sensitivity decreased from southwest to northeast. Distribution of vulnerability was based on the administrative area as a unit, high vulnerability distributed in western region except Ping′an street. Disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of drought disaster was higher in the northeast and lower in southwest. Drought comprehensive risk was higher in southwest and lower in Northeast.