塔里木河流域水资源承载力变化及其驱动力分析

The Change of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Analysis of Its Driving Forces in the Tarim River Basin

通过构建水资源承载力指标体系,选取18个水资源承载力影响因子,运用主成分分析法对2005-2013年塔里木河流域水资源承载力变化趋势进行分析,并评价其驱动力。分析出2005-2013年,F值从-2.341 7增加到3.380 5,塔里木河流域水资源承载力总体上呈现明显下降趋势。农业生产和人口数量是塔里木河流域水资源承载力变化的主要驱动力。最后提出应合理控制农业人口数量,合理规划灌溉面积,推动产业结构调整,提高新型城镇化水平等建议,以增强水资源的可持续发展能力。

By constructing the index system of water resources carrying capacity, 18 impact factors of water resources carrying capacity were selected, the change trend of water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin during 2005-2013 was analyzed by using principal component analysis, and the driving force of water resources carrying capacity was evaluated.From 2005-2013, The F value increased from-2.341 7 to 3.380 5, and the water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin was downward on the whole. Agricultural production and population were the main driving forces of the change of water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin. To solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, and enhance the sustainable development of water resources, controlling the number of agricultural population,reasonable planning and irrigation area, promoting the adjustment of industrial structure, and improving the level of the newtype urbanization development were suggested.