基于ESDA-GWR的四川省耕地时空演变特征及成因分析

Study on Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Change in Sichuan Province Based on ESDA-GWR

以四川省市域为研究单元,计算21个市州2000-2013年耕地丰度指数及耕地变化指数,在借助空间自相关及重心模型基础上研究其耕地时空演变特征,并应用灰色关联模型和地理加权回归(GWR)模型探讨影响耕地变化的驱动力和影响程度。结果表明,四川省耕地资源表现出明显的空间异质性,耕地丰富区主要集中在川东地区和四川盆地,耕地稀疏区集中在川西高原区;耕地重心呈L形移动轨迹。四川省耕地总量在减少;变化剧烈(high-high)区在成都和眉山周边;耕地重心向南偏移。人口增加和经济发展因素是影响耕地变化的主要驱动力,人口因素影响程度最大的是攀西地区,经济发展因素影响最大的是川东北地区。

In this study,the abundance index and changing index of the cultivated land at 21 cities in Sichuan province were calculated. Based on the spatial autocorrelation and gravity center model, the spatial-temporal characteristics of cultivated land was analyzed,and the driving force of these change and influence degree were also studied by gray correlation analysis method and geographically weighted regression model. The results showed that the cultivated land resources of Sichuan province presented obvious spatial heterogeneity,the rich region of cultivated land mainly concentrated in in east region of Sichuan and Sichuan Basin, the sparse area of cultivated land concentrated in the Western Sichuan Plateau; the moving track of cultivated land center showed the form of ＂L＂. The total arable land of Sichuan province is decreasing,the severe（high-high） area of cultivated land change is in the periphery of Meishan and Chengdu, the farmland gravity is shifted to south. The increase of population and the economic development might be the main driving factors that affect the change of cultivated land. The greatest driving factor in Panxi area was population and in the northeast of Sichuan was economic development.