特大城市交通碳排放的异速生长分析——以武汉市为例

Temporal Allometry and Its Mechanism on CO_2 Emissions from Urban——Transport in Wuhan City

以武汉市为例,对其2003～2013年交通碳排放的异速生长演化特征进行分析,结果发现：武汉市综合交通碳排放总体呈线性递增趋势但结构差异显著,结构效率呈＂公共交通高私人交通低＂的特征,前者呈螺旋式演进而后者增长迅猛;城市交通碳排放与经济社会等影响因素呈显著的异速生长关系,城市经济发展、城市扩张和基础设施建设等指标与交通碳排放呈负异速生长关系,机动车数量和公路里程成为交通碳排放＂成长＂的决定性因素。

This paper analyzes the temporal evolution and influencing mechanism in Wuhan city from 2003 to 2013 by building urban traffic carbon emission model. Results show that,firstly,the comprehensive transport carbon emissions in Wuhan city from 2003 to 2013 has a linear increasing trend,and the component structure difference of comprehensive transport carbon emissions significantly expanded. The carbon emission efficiency of bus is the highest,the carbon emission efficiency of private car is the lowest. Secondly,there is a significant allometric relationship between urban transport carbon emissions and economic and social factors. Between urban economic development,urban expansion,infrastructure construction and transport carbon emissions showing negative allometric relationships,while population,motor vehicles and transport carbon emissions are positively allometric relationships. Number of motor vehicles and highway mileage are the decisive factors in the growing process of urban transport carbon emissions.