考虑政府补贴的天然气市场供给博弈模型研究

The Game Model of Natural Gas Market Supply Considering Government Subsidies

通过引入产品替代因子,构建非常规与常规天然气市场供给动态博弈模型,并运用补贴乘数刻画政府补贴对不同厂商最优生产策略空间选择的影响程度。结果表明:政府补贴有利于增加国内天然气供给量,减小对外依存度;相比于产量补贴,投入补贴更有利于提高国内天然气供给量;非常规对常规天然气替代性的增大有利于提高总产量,但由于技术瓶颈,开采初期成本偏高,政府补贴有利于降低成本,增大替代性。

By introducing product substitution factor,this paper sets up dynamic Game Model with consideration of unconventional and conventional natural gas market supply. And then,it analyzes the influence degree of different manufacturers＇ optimal strategies spatial selection by using subsidies multiplier. Results show that,government subsidies are conducive to increasing the gas supply quantity and reducing the dependence on foreign oil. What＇s more,the input subsidies are more beneficial to improve the supply of gas compared to production subsidies. The alternative can help to improve production of gas market,but in the early stage of unconventional gas extraction,technical bottlenecks lead to high costs,and government subsidies can help to reduce costs and increase alternative.