基于状态的电网设备故障概率非线性回归分析

Nonlinear Regression Analysis of Failure Probability of Power Grid Equipment Based on Its Condition

针对EA经验公式在分析电网设备状态与故障概率相互关系中存在的偏差,基于非线性回归分析原理,利用电网设备状态及其故障概率的历史统计数据,提出EA经验公式的修正方法。通过跟踪收集深圳电网110kV电力电缆在2010-2011年期间状态评价结果和故障情况的数据,采用SPSS统计分析方法,进行样本参数估计,拟合出电网设备运行状态与其故障概率的关系曲线,并采用非线性回归相关比对修正函数进行校验。

In allusion to the deviation with the EA experience formula on analyzing interrelationship of the power grid equipment condition and its fault probability, using history statistics data of power grid equipment conditions and their fault probabilities, this paper puts forward a correction method for EA experience formula based on the nonlinear regression analysis theory. Through tracking and collecting condition evaluation results and fault data of 110kV power cables in Shenzhen power grids from the year 2010 to 2011, the SPSS statistics analysis method is adopted to estimate the sample parameters, and fit the relationship curve for the operation conditions of power grid equipment and their fault probability. The correlation coefficient of nonlinear regression is used to verify the correction function.