创造与替代:对外投资与本地就业关系研究

Creation and Replacement: A Research on the Relationship between Foreign Investment and Domestic Employment

随着中国经济发展,资本积累不断增加,对外投资成为我国经济发展的新常态,其对本国就业的影响成为了学术界关注的热点。利用2004-2014年中国30个省市的面板数据,采用固定效应模型及动态面板一阶段GMM进行估计分析。结果表明:从全国视角来看,对外投资会减少当期就业,但对未来的就业有拉动作用;从区域视角来看,东部地区对外投资对就业有积极影响,但应控制规模;中、西部地区对外投资会显著抑制当期就业,对未来就业拉动不明显。因此,东部地区应当加大研发投资,设立监控系统控制投资;中西部地区应加大投资引进先进技术,同时还应进行产业承接,创造就业。

With the growth of economic and capital accumulation,foreign investment becomes a new normal in China＇s economic development. Its influence on domestic employment draws more academic attention and thus becomes a hotpot. On the basis of 30 provinces＇ panel data from 2004 to 2014,this thesis uses fixed effect model and one- step GMM estimation method to analyze the relationship between foreign investment and domestic employment. Nationally,the results show that foreign investments would reduce the current employment; however,it will promote employment in the future. In eastern regions,foreign investments will promote employment,but the scale should be controlled. For middle and western regions,the employment substitution effect is stronger than the substitution effect. As a consequence,eastern regions should invest more capital in innovation and build a supervising system. For middle and western regions,more new technologies should be brought in; and industry regional transference and absorption should be made to increase employment.