基于航路阻塞概率的航班改航研究

Flight Reroute Research Based on Route Blockage Probability

为了减少危险天气下的航班延误现象,航班需要采取改航策略绕飞飞行受限区。为了保证改航路径的安全,提出改航路阻塞概率模型,以改航路径最短,平均改航路径阻塞概率最小,转弯点数量最少,平均转弯角度最小为目标建立改航模型。以南京-海口航线为例进行仿真验证,规划的改航路径长度增加9.2%,平均阻塞概率为12%,转弯角数量为1,平均转弯角度为55.3°。仿真结果表明,采用该方法可以规划出一条安全、经济的改航路径。

In order to reduce the phenomenon of flight delay under dangerous weather, flights need to reroute around flow constrained area. In order to guarantee the safe of new route, it established a probability model for route blockage. And it took the shortest path of reroute, the minimum blockage probability, the least turning points and minimum average turning angle as goals to establish a reroute model. Making a simulation by the route of Nanjing -Haikou,the length of reroute path added 9. 2% , the average blocking probability was 12% , the turning point number was one and the average turning angle was 55. 3 degree. The simulation result indicates that the method can plan a safe and economical route.