基于GM(1,1)模型的湖南文化创意产业的发展预测

Forecast of Hunan Cultural and Creative Industry Development Based on GM(1,1) Model

本文采用灰色模型对湖南省文化创意产业的发展状况做预测,对缺失的数据利用牛顿插值法补全,使之符合模型要求。将模型得到的数据与实际数据做对比,发现二者符合良好。利用该模型预测了2016到2020年湖南省文化创意产业总产出额,预测结果对未来湖南省文化创意产业政策效果的评估有一定的参考价值。

We choose the gray model to predict the development of hunan culture industry, and use Newton interpolation method to complete the missing data to made it fit the model. When comparing the model data and real data, we found it matched good. By using this model, we predict the total out put of hunan cultural industry from 2016 to 2020. This conclusion would give reference to the evaluation of efficient of the policy of hunan cultural industry.