2015年国际钻石产业困境及面临的挑战

Global Diamond Industry Recession of 2015 and Several Prospective Challenges

钻石产业在珠宝产业中举足轻重。从2014下半年开始,特别是2015年,国际钻石产业经历了自2008年金融危机后的最大挑战。通过对钻石产业报告、公司年报和新闻资料的整理分析,综述了国际钻石产业发展现状,分析了2015年钻石产业困境产生的因果及其后可能面对的挑战。显然,解决下游钻饰需求疲软问题仍是现今整个钻石产业的当务之急,钻石产业链的结构性变革和整合在所难免。资料显示,2013年下半年,钻石市场意外改善,主要毛坯钻石开采商相应增加了毛坯钻石销售、提高毛坯钻石价格,切磨商投机盲目购买毛坯钻石。2014下半年开始,新兴钻饰市场,尤其是大中华区钻饰市场意外放缓。新兴市场成品钻石需求剧减和切磨商资金周转困难的相互作用推动了成品钻石价格下跌;切磨商利润缩减,减少了毛坯钻石购买,导致毛坯钻石销售骤减价格暴跌,致使2015年末大量过剩毛坯钻石停留在主要开采商处,从而形成了市场的恶性循环。2015年,国际钻石产业受到下游钻饰消费放缓的连锁反应影响,产业链内部存在的结构性问题加深加大了此次困境。当前,上游毛坯钻石市场正经历结构性变革,钻石商从整体战略合作向更注重自身利益方向偏移;处于中游的钻石切磨商利润空间弹性变小,融资难度加大,难以抵抗钻石产业剧烈竞争和短期动荡带来的结构性风险;特别是整个钻石产业缺乏整体市场的创新开发能力等诸多因素导致钻石产业面临一系列新的挑战。

The diamond industry is a vital part of the jewelry industry.In the second half of2014 and especially in 2015,the diamond industry suffered the most intense recession since the 2008 financial crisis.Through the analysis of diamond industry reports,company annual reports,and news reports,the authors reviewed the current status of the global diamond industry,focused on the reasons for and results of this recession,and pointed out several pro-spective challenges faced by the industry.Obviously,the most crucial and urgent problem facing the industry is the softened demand for diamond jewelry.The available information suggests that because of the sudden improvement in the diamond industry in the second half of 2013,major rough diamond producers increased sales and prices of rough diamonds while mid-sector companies speculated heavily by buying them.However,the demand for diamond jewelry in emerging markets,particularly in Greater China Area,has declined unexpectedly since the second half of 2014.The sharp decrease in demand for polished diamonds in emerging markets and tight liquidity for the mid-sector further depressed the prices and profitability of polished stones.In turn,sales and prices of rough stones decreased dramatically,and major producers were left with large excess inventory.As a result,a vicious circle was created.In 2015,the diamond industry suffered a ripple effect from the decline in consumer demand for diamond jewelry that began in 2014.In the meantime,structural problems in the global diamond industry enlarged and deepened this recession.The diamond industry now faces several new challenges.First,the rough diamond distribution system is undergoing structural change and producers are moving away from strategic coordination,which will cause instability in the industry.Second,mid-market companies with underlying structural problems including declining profitability and increasing financial risk are not robust enough to cushion against fiercer competition in the industry and short-term fluctuations in the retail market,and thus will likely undergo structural reform.Last but not least,the diamond industry has lacked investment in generic marketing for too long.