基于关联数字矩阵的土地政策传导系统反馈复杂性分析

Feedback and Complexity Analysis of Transmission System of Land Policy Based on Incidence Digital Matrix

研究目的:分析土地调控政策因子与社会经济变量之间反馈关系,构建土地政策传导系统因果关系图,进而研究土地政策传导路径及其系统的主导反馈结构,解析系统反馈动态性所蕴含的政策调控效应。研究方法:系统动力学原理、关联数字矩阵的反馈复杂分析技术。研究结果:(1)土地政策传导系统存在93条反馈环,其中40条为独立主导反馈环;(2)土地用途和供应政策是系统反馈复杂性的主要根源,土地出让金管理和耕地保护政策的调控效果直接显著,土地税收政策则对目标调控乏力;(3)21条非独立主导反馈环揭示出政策组合拳的调控合力。研究结论:土地政策传导系统是一类具有反馈性质和延迟效应的动态复杂系统,不同政策工具对目标的调控效应存在显著差异。

The purpose of this paper is to build causal diagrams of land policy transmission system on the basis of compre- hensive analysis of feedback relationships between land policy factors and socio-economic variables and to dig out the effects of macro-control policies behind the feedback and dynamic system through the research of the land policy transmis- sion pathway and its system feedback structure. System dynamics theory and complex feedback analysis technique based on related incidence digital matrix are applied in this paper. As the results shown, firstly, there are 93 feedback loops in the transmission system of land policy, 40 of which are independent and dominant feedback loops. Secondly, land use and supply policies are the major sources of the system feedback and complexity, and management policies of land-transferring fees and farmland protection policies have more significant and more direct regulation effect than land tax policies. Finally, 21 non-independent dominant feedback loops reveal the regulation force of combined policies. It is concluded that land policy transmission system is a dynamic and complex system with feedback and delay effect, and that there is a significant difference in control effects which different policy instruments take on the targets.