多目标约束下中国能源结构调整方向

China's Energy Structure Adjustment Direction under Multi-objective Constraints

随着我国新型城镇化战略的提出及进程加快，能源使用总量与环境污染日益加剧，实现能源、环境与经济的协调发展对我国可持续发展有重要现实意义。基于此，在考虑经济发展及就业需求驱动、能源环境污染限制的条件下，本文构建了能源安全系数，并利用1990-2012年中国一次能源生产及消费相关数据，构建了中国一次能源消费结构优化的多目标决策模型。研究结果表明：在保证就业及经济发展需求下使环境污染达到最小，中国煤炭、石油、天然气和水能一次能源消费结构就为51．51％、31．33％、8．86％和8．30％．研究结论将为中国能源“十三五”规划的调整方向提供理论依据及实证借鉴。

As the strategy of new urbanization is put forward in our country and is proceeded, the total energy use and environmental pollution is growing. In this context, to realize the harmonious development of energy, environment and economy has the important practical significance to our country＇s sustainable development. Based on this, considering the limited conditions for economic development, employment demand drive, and environment pollution, this paper constructs the energy security coefficient,and by using 1990-2012 China＇ s primary energy production and consumption data, builds the multi-objective decision making model on China＇s primary energy consumption structure optimization. The results show that when minimizing the environmental pollution for which guarantee employment and economic development, China＇s coal, oil, gas and water primary energy consumption structure is 51.51%, 31.33%, 8.86% and 8.30%. The research conclusion will provide theoretical basis and empirical reference for Chings energy adjust direction during the 13th Five-year Plan.