长江经济带人口-耕地-粮食复合系统协调性时空演变

Spatial-temporal evolution of coordination degree of the compound system among the population,cultivated land and grain in the yangtze river Economic Zone

运用耦合协调度模型,对长江经济带人口、耕地和粮食三者间的关系进行了研究。研究表明:(1)长江经济带的整体耦合协调度不高。2003年耦合协调度最低,之后快速上升,2013年达到勉强协调类型;(2)长江经济带各地区三者的协调性存在显著的时间差异。长江经济带各省市的人口—耕地—粮食的协调性随着时间而逐步演变;(3)长江经济带各地区三者的协调性存在显著的空间差异。各省市当年的协调类型呈现着显著的空间分布特征,长江经济带较高协调性的地区呈现西移的趋势。基于研究结论,为促进长江经济带人口、耕地和粮食三者的协调发展,提出加强耕地保护、推动农业集约化以及加强长江经济带的区域合作等政策建议。

The paper utilizes the models of coupling coordinative degree to study the relationship among population,cultivated land and grain system,and the results show that：（1）The coordination level of the degree in Yangtze River Economic Zone remains at a low level.It dropped to the lowest in 2003,and then raised quickly,and finally reached to the Barely Coordination in 2013.（2）There is an obvious time difference in coordination in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and the degree of coordination in each province in Yangtze River Economic Zone changes over time.（3 ）There is an obvious spatial difference in coordination in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.And each province in Yangtze River Economic Zone presents an obvious spatial characteristic,and there is a trend that the higher coordination areas is shifting westward.At last, we will make some politic suggestions, namely strengthening the protection of cultivated land,promoting the intensive agricultural production and strengthening the regional agricultural production cooperation to promote the coordinated development of population,cultivated land and grain in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.