世界经济的结构性困境与发展新周期及中国的新贡献

Structural Dilemma,New Development Cycle of World Economy And Its New Contribution from China

后危机时代,世界经济增长更加充满不确定性和复杂性,全球化方向变得扑朔迷离。在经济低迷增长过程中,世界经济出现了一系列内在的"悖论"。"悖论之谜"在于上一轮发展周期内形成的结构性困境制约了全球经济复苏和增长。走出"悖论"的出路依赖于世界经济迈向新的发展长周期。当下的世界经济正处在旧周期的衰退和新周期的孕育阶段;世界经济已告别上一轮发展长周期,将进入一个新的增长周期。在周期性转换过程中,世界经济需要从传统的斯密型增长模式走向熊彼特式增长新模式。值的一提的是,在世界经济新旧发展周期转换过程中,中国提出的五大发展新理念,既有助于引领中国经济新一轮发展,也有助于推动世界经济转型调整和复苏增长,更有助于推动世界经济走向新的长周期的孕育和增长新阶段。

In the post-crisis era,world economy growth is filled with much more uncertainty and complexity,as well as the direction of globalization. A series of ' inter-paradoxes' has being emerged during the growth downturn. ' The mystery of the Paradoxes' could be described as the situation that the structural dilemma formed in the last round of development cycle,are still constraining the recovery and growth of global economy. The way out of ' paradoxes' depends on the transition of the world economy into a new stage of long-term cycle of development. The current situation of world economy can be described as in the recession stage of an old cycle and in the inoculation stage of a new one,which means it's in an in-between situation of two different growth cycles. A transition from the traditional Smith-type growth to Schumpeterian growth is necessary to achieve this transition between two different growth cycles. The five new concepts of development put forward by Chinese government are quite worth mentioning in the transition process between two different development cycles of world economy. They not only can be seen as the guidelines to lead a new round of development of China's economy,but also can contribute to the transition and recovery of world economy in the short term. They can be even more inspiring to promote the world economy into the inoculation stage of a new long-term cycle and a new stage of economy growth.