我国“一带一路”FTA战略的路径选择研究

A Study on the Path Selection of China's "One Belt One Road" FTA Strategy

文章旨在研究我国"一带一路"FTA战略的最优路径。首先,文章构建二元响应模型,分析我国选择FTA伙伴国的决定性因素,并据此预测最适合与我国建立FTA的"一带一路"沿线国家或地区。其次,运用一般均衡模型分析我国与"一带一路"沿线各国建立双边FTA的福利与外贸潜在效应,并依托我国的FTA福利获益构建第二个维度的分析框架。此外,对"一带一路"沿线国家或地区的政治安全与风险进行量化评估,构建第三个维度的分析框架。最后,文章运用主成分分析法对三个维度进行降维和综合评估,确定了我国"一带一路"FTA战略的最优潜在合作伙伴。

This paper aims to study the optimal path of China's ' One Belt,One Road' FTA strategy. Firstly,we analyze the determining factors for China's FTA partner options using a binary response model. And based on the model results,China' s optimized FTA partners along ' One Belt,One Road' have been well predicted. Then with the help of CGE models,the potential impacts on China's welfare and foreign trade have been simulated from FTA perspective between China and any other countries along 'One Belt,One Road'. China's welfare benefit is chosen as a benchmark to form the second analytical framework. Besides,we make a quantitative evaluation on political security and risk status for countries along ' One Belt,One Road' to make another analytical framework. Finally,relying on dimension reduction from PCA and together with comprehensive evaluation,China's optimal potential FTA partners along ' One Belt,One Road' have been well ascertained.