油田产量预测的新方法及其应用

A new method of predicting oilfield output and its application

递减曲线分析法、水驱曲线法和数学模型法等产量预测方法未把新区考虑在内而进行新、老区综合预测。提出综合预测新、老油区产量的多元线性混合回归模型方法 ,从影响产量的诸多因素中优选出显著因素 ,以此为基础对油田产量进行预测。为验证方法科学性及可行性 ,将其应用于某油区的“十五”规划产量的预测 ,得到了较为满意的结果。该方法简单、实用 ,突破了产量预测方法的常规模式 ,对其它领域的预测也有一定的借鉴价值。图 1表 3参 5 (刘秀婷摘 )

Predicting oilfield output will go through all over the period of oilfield development. In particular, it is of great importance to oilfield development design. At present, there are many kinds of method of predicting oilfield output including decline curve analysis, waterflood curve and mathematical model. But these methods only predict output of mature blocks without considering that of new blocks. In order to solve this problem, predicting new and old blocks output model-multivariate linear mixture regression model was builds up, which is regar ded as a new method of predicting oilfield output. At first, this model is used to optimize the prominent factors from many factors which effect variable output, and then to predict oilfield output which is based on these prominent factors.Meanwhile, this model is used to predict the output of X oil field during its tenth 'Five Year' period. For the sake of verifying its science and feasibility, the result is satisfactory. The method isn't only simple and practicable, but also breaks through the normal mode of output prediction and is used for reference to the other field prediction