上市企业柔性财务融资预测仿真研究

A Flexible Budget Model of Listed Companies to Establish the Simulation Analysis

对上市企业柔性财务融资进行准确预测,可以提高企业财务安全系数。进行柔性财务融资预测时,应获取柔性财务融资关联度较强的指标,建立融资预算训练矩阵,对训练矩阵参数组合进行寻优完成预测,但是传统方法主要依靠实际的企业现金流动情况进行预测,但不能对柔性财务融资关联度较强的指标进行准确描述,无法对融资预算训练矩阵进行寻优,导致建模不准确的问题。提出基于灰色关联度的上市企业柔性财务融资预测模型。先融合于灰色关联度理论获取与柔性财务融资关联度较强的指标,借鉴LSSVM理论建立柔性财务融资预算训练矩阵,采用模式搜索原理对LSSVM预算训练矩阵参数组合进行寻优,获取最优训练预算矩阵的预算值与验证样本的均方根误差,将拟合误差序列作为训练数据,建立上市企业柔性财务融资预测模型。仿真结果证明,所提模型预算结果较为精确,为国内企业融资决策提供了重要的依据。

A prediction model of flexible finance in the listed company based on the grey correlation degree is pro- posed. Firstly, the index having high correlation degree with the flexible finance integrated with the grey correlation degree theory is obtained. Then, the financing budget train matrix of fiexible finance is built by using the LSSVM theory for reference, and the pattern search theory is used to optimize the parameter combination of budget training matrix. Moreover, the budget value of optimal training budget matrix is acquired, and the root - mean - square error of sample is verified. Finally, the fitting error sequence is used as training data to build the financing prediction model of flexible finance in the listed company. The simulation results show that the model mentioned above has high precise prediction result. It provides important basis for financing decision of domestic enterprise.