“全面二孩”政策实施能有效破解城镇职工养老保险基金支付危机吗——基于不同人口政策效果情景的分析

CAN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE “UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD” POLICY EFFECTIVELY SOLVE THE PAYMENT CRISIS OF ENDOWMENT FUND FOR URBAN EMPLOYEE——Based on Analyzing Different Implementation Effect of Population Policy

本文运用人口预测模型和养老金收支缺口模型,在分析"全面二孩"政策实施对城镇出生人口短期和长期影响的基础上,测算了"全面二孩"政策不同实施效果情景下城镇职工养老保险基金收支平衡的变化。实证结果表明:(1)"全面二孩"政策实施将推迟城镇总人口峰值出现的时间,同时会增加人口峰值的规模。(2)政策效果在悲观和折中情境下,"全面二孩"政策实施只是推迟了养老保险参保职工人口下降拐点出现的时间,改变不了参保职工人口下降的总体趋势;在乐观情景下,可以保持参保职工人口的基本稳定。(3)"全面二孩"政策实施有利于城镇职工养老保险的收支平衡,政策效果从2037年开始显现,三种政策效果情境下弥补当年养老金缺口的比例分别为36%,52%,68%。影响效果从2040年开始逐年减弱,到2050年弥补养老金缺口的比例分别下降至11%,27%和50%,不能改变养老金缺口不断扩大的趋势。

On the basis of analyzing short and long influence on the implementation of ＂universal twochild＂ policy towards urban birth population, this paper has calculated payment balance change of city la- bor force＇s endowment insurance in different implementation effect of ＂universal two-child＂ policy. Empirical research discovers as follows. First, the implementation of ＂universal two-child＂ policy will postpone emerging time of total population peak of cities and towns. Meanwhile, it will increase scale of population peak. Second, in the situation that policy effect is pessimistic and eclectic, the implementation of ＂universal two-child＂ policy just postpone emerging time of inflection point of insured worker population reduc- tion. It can＇t change the overall trend of insured worker population reduction. In optimistic situation, we can maintain basic stabilization of insured worker population. Third, the implementation of ＇universal two-child＇ policy is good for balance of payments of endowment insurance of the urban staffs. The effects of the policy will appear since 2037. The proportions of compensating the annuity gap under three policy effects are 36%, 52% and 68% respectively. The effects will begin to decrease year by year since 2040. By 2050 the proportions of compensating the annuity gap will decrease to 11 %, 27% and 50% respectively, which cannot change the tendency that the annuity gap keeps expanding.