基于组合回归方法的尼洋河流域中长期径流预报

Mid and Long-term Runoff Forecasting of Niyanghe Basin Based on Combination of Regression Method

鉴于仅使用单一的中长期径流预报方法很难有效地拟合和预测整个径流过程,将逐步回归法和自回归方法相结合,对尼洋河流域1956~1999年逐年年径流序列进行非平稳序列逐步回归趋势分析、周期分析及平稳序列自回归分析,并与AR（1）模型的计算结果进行比较研究。结果表明,组合回归方法的预测效果较好。

In view of the fact that only the use of a single medium and long term runoff forecasting method is ineffective in fitting and prediction of runoff process,combination of stepwise regression method and autoregression method was used to analyze non-stationary trend,periodicity and stationary of annual runoff series during 1956~1999for Niyanghe watershed.Compared with the results by AR（1）model,it shows that the combination regression method has good prediction effect.