基于模糊多元联系度模型的尾矿库安全评价及预测

Safety assessment and prediction of tailing reservoir based on fuzzy multiple connection degree model

以某尾矿库安全评价为例,根据尾矿库地质、建设、运行情况和尾矿库安全标准化的有关规定,将模糊综合评判和集对分析理论相结合运用到尾矿库安全评价中,建立安全评价指标体系,构建模糊多元联系度模型,应用层次分析法确定各指标的权重系数,应用集对分析法和模糊综合评判方法计算联系度,得到的安全评价结果可用以指导生产。研究结果表明,该尾矿库目前为中级安全,并有向最优安全发展的趋势,说明将模糊多元联系度模型应用到尾矿库安全评价中是合理可靠的。

With the safety assessment of railings reservoir as anexample, in light of the specific situation of tailings dam and therelevant provisions of the safety standardization of tailings pond,A safety evaluation index system of railings reservoir is estab-lished to build a fuzzy multiple connection degree model in thesafety assessment of railings dam using the fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation and the set pair analysis theory. The weight coeffi-cients of each index is determined by the analytical hierarchyprocess and the connection degree is calculated using the set pairanalysis theory to obtain the safety evaluation results of railingsdam for guiding production. The results show that the railingsreservoir is currently in the intermediate safety and has a trend ofthe development of optimal safety, which illustrates that it is rea-sonable and reliable to apply the fuzzy multi link model in thesafety assessment of tailings dam.