地质灾害危险性区划中不同权重计算方法的对比分析

Comparative analysis on different methods for weight calculation in geohazard risk zoning

以云南省怒江黄登水电站为例,基于层次分析法采用四种不同的权重计算方法对黄登水电站库区地质灾害进行危险性评价和对比分析。利用边界确定的实际滑坡及崩塌面对评价结果进行验证,以极高和高危险性级别面积百分比和与该方法下实际地质灾害在极高和高危险性级别下面积百分比和的商值作为判别各算法危险性评价结果准确率指标。通过计算比较,四种权重计算方法的评价结果准确率依次为特征向量法、最小二乘法、算术平均法和几何平均法。对比各判断矩阵不同算法下权重值,发现影响不同算法权重计算结果的根本原因是判断矩阵的一致性水平。

By taking Huangdeng Hydropower Station on Nujiang River in Yunnan Province as a study case, the risk assessment and comparative analysis are made on the geological disasters within the reservoir area of Huangdeng Hydropower Station with four different weight calculation methods on the basis of the analytical hierarchy process （AHP）. The assessment result is verified with the actual landslides and collapses determined with the boundaries. The result shows that the assessment result relatively co- incides with that of the actual condition. Comparing the weight values from the different calculation methods under every judge- ment matrix, it is found out that the basic reason of the impact on the weight calculation results from the different methods is the level of the consistency. The quotient of the sum of the percentage of area on extreme high and high hazard levels and the percent- age of area of the actual geological disaster on the same hazard levels is taken as the index to judge the accuracy rates of the risk assessment results from all the calculation methods. Through the relevant calculation comparison, the accuracy rates of the assess- ment results from all the four weight calculation methods are eigenvector method, least square method, arithmetic mean method and geometric mean in turn.