基于集对分析法的海洋经济系统脆弱性评价研究

Evaluation Studies on Marine Economic System's Vulnerability Based on Set Pair Analysis

从海洋经济系统的内涵出发,结合集对分析法和熵值法,对2012年中国11个沿海省市区的海洋经济系统脆弱性进行了实证分析。实证表明:各地脆弱性差异较大;天津、上海的海洋经济系统具有弱脆弱性;广东、江苏、山东的海洋经济系统属于中等脆弱性;辽宁、福建、浙江、海南的海洋经济系统具有强脆弱性;河北、广西的海洋经济系统具有极强脆弱性,其脆弱性指数是天津、上海的两倍有余。根据障碍因子分析,海洋灾害频发、海洋经济总量过小、主要海洋产业增加值不足成为中国大部分地区海洋经济系统脆弱性的共同障碍因素。

This paper makes and empirical analysis of the vulnerability of marine economic system for 11 coastal provinces in China on the basis of the Set Pair Analysis. The results show that： There is a large gap among these regions in forms of vulnerability. The vulnerability of Tianjin and Shanghai is at the lowest level, while Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong are at the level of medium vulnerability. Liaoning, Fujian, Zhejiang and Hainan fall into the category of higher vulnerability while Hebei and Guangxi＇s vulnerability is the highest. According to the obstacle factor analysis, there are some reasons in common such as frequent marine disasters, small scale of total marine economy and insufficient value added of major industries marine.