基于模糊综合评价的地方债务风险评估

Local Debt Risk Assessment of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

针对地方性政府债务评估问题,通过层次分析法、构造比较判断矩阵和一致性检验等方法,构建出基于三个一级指标(负有直接偿债责任的债务、负有担保责任的或有债务、其他相关债务)和九个二级指标(对应省级、市级和县级的一级指标)的模糊综合评价模型,然后利用该模型对2014年全国主要省市的债务风险进行了适当的评估,并针对评估结果进行了合理的分析,最后针对地方政府债务风险管理给出了相关合理的建议.

In order to solve the problems of local government debt evaluation,this paper constructs three- level index（ debt with direct debt repayment liability,contingent liability with contingent liability through analytic hierarchy process（ AHP）,construct comparative judgment matrix and consistency test,and other related liabilities）and nine secondary indicators（ corresponding to the provincial,municipal and county- level indicators） fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,and then 2014 the major provinces and municipalities of the debt risk is assessed by the model. Finally,it gives some reasonable suggestions to the local government debt risk management.