美国温和型滞胀险研究

A study of moderate stagflation risk in USA

文章基于美国经济长期结构性停滞的主要观点，采用实际数据论证了美国经济目前的结构性停滞状态；分析了滞胀的严重型和温和型两种形态及特征；论述了美国通胀压力正在上升，并以劳动生产率下降为主轴，分析了美国温和型滞胀风险上升的前景；在此基础上进一步论述了特朗普新政府政策实施在中长期内可能提高滞涨风险。

This article, starting with actual data analysis, discusses the structural stagnation of the US economy, since there is an opinion that the US economy is stuck in a secular stagnation. It also analyzes the determination of a severe or a moderate stagflation and their corresponding features. It points out that the inflation pressure in the United States is on the rise, and with the declination of labor productivity, the moderate stagflation risk is on the rise too. It further asserts that the implementation of the Trump government policies may increase stagftation risk in the United States in the medium and long term.