摘要
2016年中国债券市场更多呈现的是普涨之后的结构性牛市行情。文章详细回顾了2016年各季度债券市场走势及其背后的影响因素，分析了市场上杠杆操作的逻辑及未来价值空间，从资产泡沫、通胀预期、汇率压力、货币派生等方面揭示了2017年债市存在的中长期压力，指出2017年债市利率可能先上后下，整体呈现宽幅震荡格局，机构盈利情况分化，投研能力将从业绩体现，债市将变得更加成熟、有效。
In 2016, the China bond market turned to a structural bull market after generally rising. The essay reviews the quarterly performance of the bond market and the factors contributing to such trends, analyzes the logic of leverage and the potential to rise for the market in future, and reveals the medium-to-long term pressure in 2017 in terms of the asset bubble, inflation expectation, exchange rate pressure as well as the money derivative. The author points out that the 2017 bond market may present a reverse V-shaped movement with violent volatility. The earnings of institutions will be differenced, reflecting different investment ＆ research capability of each institution. The bond market will become more mature and efficient.
出处
《中国货币市场》
北大核心
2016年第12期28-32,共5页
China Money
