基于系统动力学的煤炭产业公地研究初探

Preliminary study on the coal Industrial Commons based on the system dynamics

产业公地最初作为分析美国制造业发展症结及其振兴路径的工具而被提出,其对煤炭产业发展同样关系重大。本文在对提出产业公地的背景、概念内涵进行深入分析的基础上重新定义产业公地,并运用系统动力学软件Vensim画出煤炭产业公地各影响因素的因果循环图。研究表明,受宏观经济增速、环境污染、进口煤炭及可替代能源的影响,煤炭产业公地由"黄金期"逐步进入不可逆的衰退期,可以通过加强煤炭供应链管理、加大节能减排技术改造和研发投入力度等举措延缓煤炭产业公地受侵蚀的速度。

Industrial Commons was originally put forward as a tool to analyze the crux of US manufacturing development and the path of it＇s restoring. It also matters a great deal for coal industry. This paper redefines Industrial Commons on the basis of deep analyzing the background of Industrial Commons being proposed and it＇s connotation. Using software Vensim to draw the causal loop diagrams of coal industrial commons and analysis it＇s healthy trend, it shows that coal industrial commons is turning from ＂golden period＂ to irreversible recession, blaming on macroeconomic growth, environmental pollution, imported coal and alternative energy sources. Strengthening the coal supply chain management, increasing technological transformation of energy-saving and emission reduction, tightening R^D investment will slow the erosion of the coal industry commons.