我国锂资源供应风险评估

Risk assessment of lithium resources supply in China

我国锂产业发展长期面临着守着资源却严重依赖进口的矛盾状况。本文采用历史对比和定量评价的方法,从目前供需状况、生产成本、地缘政治、公司集中度和未来供需趋势5个方面对我国锂资源供应风险进行了评价。风险雷达图解表明,当前我国锂资源供应风险主要集中于国内锂生产成本高,制约我国锂资源开发,锂产品加工原材料对外依存度高,国际锂市场话语权缺失等方面。针对我国锂资源供应风险治理,建议随着国内锂资源开发进度加快,政府应统筹规划,建立锂资源有序开发和可持续的生产链,鼓励支持锂资源的回收利用;中国锂矿企业应着力解决国内锂资源开发成本高的问题,充分利用国内锂资源,同时积极参与全球锂矿资源配置,加强"一带一路"沿线地区锂资源合作开发。

The lithium industry in China is facing with the contradictory condition of that our lithium raw material is heavily dependent on imported.Through the method of historical comparison and quantitative evaluation,this article evaluates lithium resources supply from five aspects,which included the current situation of supply and demand,production costs,geopolitical,company concentration and the future trend of lithium resources in China.As the risk radar diagram shows that domestic lithium production cost is relatively high,which restrict the development of domestic lithium resources;lithium raw materials external dependence is high;China Lithium producers don＇t have the discourse power in lithium international market.It is suggested that the government should make overall plans for lithium development in China,to establish an orderly and sustainable production chain,to encourage lithium resources recycling.As an important participant,China lithium companies should strive to solve the problems of the high production costs to make full use of domestic lithium resources.At the same time,they could actively participate in global lithium market,take advantage of ＂the Belt and Road＂to strengthen lithium cooperation development.