摘要
菱镁矿是我国的优势矿产资源,其主要消耗的行业是钢铁和水泥。本文在分析菱镁矿需求分析的背景下,运用部门需求预测法,通过追踪菱镁矿产业链,在收集其上游生产环节的开发利用数据及其下游产品终端市场的消费数据,建立菱镁矿需求预测模型,预测我国菱镁矿未来需求量。预测结果表明,随着钢铁和水泥消费顶点的很快到来,我国菱镁矿消费已进入峰值区,其峰值约为2510万t,且将在一段时间内保持高位消费,随后呈现缓慢下降趋势。
Magnesite is preponderant mineral resources of China,which is main cosume industry that is steel industry and cement industry.On the background of analyzing the demand of magnesite,the authors use the demand forecasting method of sector by tracking the magnesite industry chain,collecting the development and utilization data of upstream production process and the consumption data of downstream product terminal market,and building the magnesite demand forecasting model which predicts the demand of the magnesite in the future in China.The results show that with the arrival of consumption peak of steel industry and cement industry,China＇s magnesite consumption will reach the peak which is 25.1 million tons,it will keep a high-level consumption for some time and decline gradually afterwards.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2016年第12期38-42,47,共6页
China Mining Magazine
基金
中国地质调查局项目资助(编号:12120113079500)
关键词
菱镁矿
需求预测
钢铁行业
水泥行业
magnesite
sector demand forecast
steel industry
cement industry
