基于粗糙集与突变模型的江西省生态文明建设评价

Evaluation of Ecological Civilization Construction Based on Rough Set and Catastrophe Theory in Jiangxi Province

区域生态文明建设是具有突变性的动态复合系统。在对江西省的经济发展、社会建设、资源利用和生态环境保护的进行充分研究基础上,依据生态文明建设内涵,构建江西省生态文明建设评价指标体系,运用粗糙集理论筛除冗余指标,计算指标重要度以确立突变模型,从而对江西省生态文明建设发展现状进行评价。结果表明:2004-2013年间江西省生态文明建设呈现为起步、快速和稳定等3种发展状态,且在保护生态环境和建设和谐社会方面发展迅速,是推动生态文明建设发展的主要动力,而在转变发展方式、促进产业转型升级与节能降耗方面仍需努力;突变理论较好地契合江西省生态文明建设在2006年(Ⅲ级)、2010年(Ⅱ级)的两次突变过程,较好地刻画了江西省生态文明建设的发展趋势。

Regional ecological civilization construction is a dynamic complex systemic engineering which has the characteristic of mutation,Based on the connotation of ecological civilization construc-tion and the study of economic development,social construction,resource utilization and ecological environmental protection in Jiangxi province,the research constructed the evaluation index system of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province. Rough set was used to filter indexs of evalua-tion system,the importance of index was calculated to establish catastrophe model,then this paper e-valuated the ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province. The results showed that from 2004 to 2013,the ecological civilization construction had presented starting,rapid and steady devel-opment in Jiangxi province, ecological environment protection and harmonious society construction were the main driving force of ecological civilization construction and had rapidly development in these years,however,there is still room for improvement in the transformation of the mode of develop-ment,the promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading and energy conservation and con-sumption reduction;catastrophe model could fit two mutation process of ecological civilization con-struction,it accurately depict the development trend of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province.