基于ANN方法的境外基础设施PPP项目风险分担研究

Research on the Risk Sharing of Overseas Infrastructure PPP Projects Based on ANN Method

文章采用模糊数学理论中的ANN方法,把BP算法用于境外基础设施PPP项目的风险分担和风险管理。实证部分以调查样本为基础建立了风险数据矩阵,采用MATLAB软件分析数据,结果稳健有效,ANN方法的数学特征和针对非线性关系的预测功能减少了模拟的工作量和主观误差。结果显示,境外基础设施PPP项目的突出风险主要是宏观层面的政府相关风险,控制好此类风险是项目成功的关键。另外,项目运行过程中的契约非完备性导致了合同调整的滞后,所以建立各方动态调整机制应对项目风险至关重要。ANN方法较好地模拟了相关各方的风险分担,为项目各方的风险管理提供了参考。

Based on ANN fuzzy mathematics theory, this paper applies BP method to the risk sharing and risk management for overseas infrastructure PPP projects and establishes a risk matrix based on the data of sample survey. The empirical data are analyzed by MATLAB software and the results are robust and effective, reducing the workload of simulation and subjective error. The mathematical characteristics and the forecasting capabilities for the non -linear relationship of ANN method enhance the objectivity and scientific nature of risk sharing. The results show that the prominent risks of overseas PPP infrastructure projects are government-related risks at the macro level, the key to the success of project. In addition, the and risk control on these derived factors is dynamic adjustment mechanism of contract is essential for various parties to deal with project risks due to the contractual incompleteness. ANN method simulates the risk-sharing of related parties, and provides suggestions to various parties on controlling the risks of overseas infrastructure PPP projects.