市场需求、服务出口以及空间溢出效应——基于中国与23个OECD国家面板数据的检验

Market Demand,Export of Services and Spatial Spillover Effect

以我国和23个OECD国家2000~2012年的服务贸易面板数据为考察样本,运用普通面板模型和空间面板模型两种实证方法,在扩展的引力模型的基础上分析了市场需求对服务贸易出口的影响以及服务贸易出口是否存在空间溢出效应。实证研究结果表明：市场需求的扩大确实能够有效促进一国服务出口贸易的发展;与贸易伙伴国之间的距离越近,越有利于一国服务贸易的发展;良好的司法制度能对一国服务贸易产生显著的积极作用。空间面板模型结果显示,服务贸易出口确实存在空间溢出效应,一方面服务出口国能够在邻国产生技术、知识等的溢出,使得邻国的服务出口增加;另一方面,邻国内部的不可观测因素,如是否发生地震、海啸等也会影响本国的服务出口。

In order to find out if the strategy of expanding domestic demand can promote the development of service export, this paper uses bilaterally statistical panel data in China and other 23 OECD countries from 2000 to 2012 as samples. Based on extended Gravity model, this paper analyses whether the strategy of ex- panding domestic demand can influence service trade export, and if there is the spatially econometric effect of service trade export, that is to say, whether export amounts in service of one country will be related to export amounts in service of the other country among one region. The empirical results show that the domestic market demand surely can promote the development of service trade export. In other respects, the closer the distance between trading partners, the more conducive the development of a country＇ s trade in services ; Good judicial system has a significantly positive effect on a country＇ s service trade export. Also, there is the spatially econometric effect of service trade export, for example, service trade volumes of export are correlated with each other among countries within free trade zone. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote China＇s export trade in service and to turn around service trade deficits.