厦门市居民道路交通事故死亡与减寿趋势分析及预测

Trend and prediction of mortality and years of life lost due to road accident in residents in Xiamen City

目的探讨厦门市居民道路交通事故死亡与减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市道路交通事故综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2008-2014年厦门市居民道路交通事故死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2008-2014年,厦门市居民因道路交通事故死亡率变化不大,平均为11.66/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.79倍;AYLL为28.15年。GM(1,1)模型预测2015-2017年道路交通事故死亡率和AYLL值将略有下降。结论道路交通事故仍是厦门市居民早死的重要原因,应以男性、老年居民作为重点宣教对象,重视道路交通事故的预防和控制工作。

Objective To explore the changing trend of mortality and years of life lost owing to road accident in residents in Xiamen City so as to provide evidence for its comprehensive prevention and managemet. Methods The data about residents dying of road accident in Xiamen City from 2008 to 2014 were collected to calculate the evaluation indexes like the mortality rate, the average potential life lost （ AYLL）, and the average percentage change （ APC ） of mortality rate. GM （ 1,1 ） model was used to predict the future mortality rate and AYLL. Results The average mortality rate of road accident in residents in Xiamen City during 2008-2014 was 11.66/100,000, of which the mortality rate of males was 2.79 times that of females. The AYLL in the total population was 28.15 years. The mortality rate and AYLL were predicted to decrease slightly from 2015 to 2017 based on the GM（ 1,1） model. Conlusions Road accidents are still the main cause of life lose in residents in Xiamen City. More attention should be paid to the prevention and control of road accidents, especially in strengthening the propaganda in male and elderly populations.