基于实物期权法的延长油田难动用储量经济评价方法研究

Research on Economic Evaluation of Yanchang Oil Field Difficult Developing Reserves Based on Real Options

在当前国际油价持续低迷的情况下,如何对难动用储量开发进行合理、客观并具有可操作性的经济评价尤为重要。针对此问题,提出适用于延长油田难动用储量的经济评价研究思路,在此基础上初步建立基于实物期权理论和二叉树期权定价方法的经济评价模型和方法,并结合实例进行经济评价。结果表明,建立在资金时间价值理论基础上的实物期权法在难动用储量的经济评价中具有天然的适用性和可操作性。采用此方法对延长油田某区块难动用储量进行评价,结果显示,在当前油价水平下该难动用储量持有价值与执行价值差距不大,立即着手开发难以实现效益最大化。因此,改善经营管理模式、降低开发成本、提升工艺技术水平及单井产量,才是油田在当前形势下获得较高收益的理想途径。

In the case of the current international oil prices remains low,conventional reservoir development has entered a bottleneck period,as tight oil of the difficult producing reserves has become a major breakthrough in oil field production and product. For this kind of reservoir development work to establish a set of more reasonable objective and operable economic evaluation model and method is particularly important. Aiming at this problem,put forward the research train of thought of apply to prolong oilfield difficult producing reserves of the current development status of economic evaluation research,on the basis of the preliminary set up a binary tree based on real option theory economic evaluation model and method. The results showed that,based on the theory of capital time value of real options method in application difficult producing reserves had a natural in the process of the economic evaluation of applicability and operability. Using this method to evaluate specific blocks of the Yanchang oilfield,it showed that the block of the difficult developing reserves under the current price level held value and performed value gap is not big,set out to develop hard to maximize efficiency immediately. Therefore,improve the operation and management model and single well production,reduce development cost,it would be the better way to gain the high earnings in the current situation.