基于GIS的福建省烤烟气象灾害综合风险区划

Comprehensive Risk Division of Meteorological Disasters for Tobacco Based on GIS in Fujian Province

为了探究福建复杂地形下的烤烟气象灾害风险,规避或减轻气象灾害可能造成的损失,利用福建省烟区28个县(区)的1972-2014年气象资料,2008-2013年烤烟产量、面积及其它社会经济资料,构建由致灾因子危险性、烤烟脆弱性和烟区防灾减灾能力组成的多灾种综合风险区划指标体系,采用层次分析法—熵权法量化计算各指标权重,利用加权综合法计算综合灾害风险指数,基于GIS技术开展烤烟气象灾害综合风险区划。结果表明:福建烟区气象灾害综合风险呈现由东南至西北逐级增加的趋势,轻度气象灾害综合风险区主要分布在龙岩市中东部、三明市东部和南平市东部的部分地带;中度灾害风险区主要分布在龙岩市西部,南平和三明两市介于东部和西部之间地带;重度以上风险区主要分布在南平和三明两市的西北部山区,其中1000m以上高海拔地区存在严重气象灾害风险。

In order to explore the meteorological disaster risk of tobacco under complex terrain in Fujian province, and to avoid or reduce loss, the risk system of impacts of multi-disasters on tobacco, including hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of tobacco and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of tobacco regions, was established in this paper, based on the meteorological data from 1972 to 2008 in 28 tobacco planting areas, planting area and yield of tobacco from 2008 to 2013, and other socio-economic data. Then the indicator weight was determined, the comprehensive risk was calculated, and risk division was given, by methods such as analytic hierarchy process, entropy-weight coefficient method, weighting method, and GIS. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of meteorological disasters in the regions of tobacco in Fujian increased step by step from southeast to northwest. The regions of mild comprehensive meteorological disaster risk were mainly distributed in the mid-east of Longyan city, east of Sanming city and some areas of eastem Nanping city. The moderate risk regions were mainly distributed in west of Longyan and the region between east and west of Nanping and Sanming. The severe and more severe risk regions were mainly distributed in the northwest mountainous areas of Nanping and Sanming, among then, the areas where the attitude higher than 1000 meters had more severe risk of meteorological disasters.