基于WRF模式的对流性降水预报检验

Forecasts Verification of Convectional Precipitation Based on the WRF Model

文章挑选了2013年5—10月5个民航机场(乌海市、呼和浩特市、二连浩特市、阿尔山市和满洲里市)出现对流性降水的个例,基于WRF模式对不同格距下单站降水次数、降水评分和降水量级进行检验。结果表明:不同格距下模式模拟的降水均以对流性为主,模式能较好的模拟出降水性质;从降水评分检验来看,9km的模拟结果好于27km,分辨率提高后二连浩特市、呼和浩特市和乌海市3个站的TS评分均明显提高;模式对小雨量级降水的预报准确率最高,达95%以上,对其它级别降水预报量级明显偏小。

Based on statistic data of convective precipitation occurred in 5 civil aviation airports （Wuhai, Hohhot, ErerLhot, Arxan and Manzhouli） from May to October in 2013, this paper evaluated the precipitation times, precipitation grade and precipitation skill score in different grid distance by WRF model. The results showed that WRF model could simulate the nature of precipitation, and convective precipitation was the main type of precipitation in different grid distance. According to TS-weigh of precipitation, the simulated results of 9 km was better than that of 27 km, but in Wuhai, Hohhot and Erenhot airports, the scores were distinctly improved after enhancing the resolution ratio. In addition, WRF model forecast accuracy rate of light rain was above 95%, but for other precipitation intensity, it forecasted smaller.