珠三角地区城乡空间转型过程及影响因素

Spatial urban-rural transformation and its driving factors in the Pearl River Delta region

基于多期城镇建设用地矢量数据、自然要素、人文经济要素数据,利用空间统计和logistic回归模型,定量识别珠三角地区城乡发展转型的空间中心性、动态性和差异性的演变过程及其驱动机制。结论表明:1珠三角地区城乡空间转型的中心集聚性不断凸显,形成了以"广佛—深莞"为轴的城镇建设用地连绵集聚区;珠江口东岸中心集聚性和空间扩展性强于西岸,核心区域优于边缘区域,形成多核心的"A"型空间结构;城镇建设用地扩张呈现出显著"点—轴"指向性地域特征;空间成长性呈现为"大集聚,大分散"的网络连接的空间特征。2外部社会经济发展和内部地理要素及区位条件等共同驱动城乡空间转型,工业化发展和区位条件是核心影响因素。3在多重约束下的"控增逼存"政策框架下,人口变化对城乡转型空间扩展的影响不显著。

Urban-rural development transformation （URDT） is a comprehensive human process of element transfer, strategy changes, and mechanisms involving urban and rural areas in China since its reform and opening up in 1978. By fully utilizing its locational advantage, the Pearl River Delta region of China has experienced dramatic economic development and urban growth since the implementation of the opening up policy in 1978. The rural areas in the Pearl River Delta have entered a rapid period of urbanization, drawing considerable attention of academic researchers and all levels of governments. The Pearl River Delta has developed rapidly through urbanization over the past three decades, and URDT has advanced in this new stage. Thus, spatial structure and expansion of urban-rural development has been a hot topic. In this study, we reviewed the progress from urbanization and analyzed the current status and problems associated with URDT in the Pearl River Delta. Then, based on vector data of urban construction land use in 1990, 2000, and 2013, as well as natural elements, data regarding socioeconomic factors, spatial statistics, and the logistic regression model, the evolution and characteristics of URDT in this region were identified quantitatively for the period 1990-2013. Meanwhile, the dynamics of diversity and the driving mechanism of urban land use expansion were also investigated. The results revealed the following： （1） URDT has progressed to a new stage in the Pearl River Delta, which is characterized by urbanization and integration of the urban-rural development; （2） the spatial structure of URDT consists of centrality （i.e., ＂Guangzhou-Shenzhen development corridor＂ as the most obvious agglomeration area）, spatial growth （i.e., ＂agglomeration in large areas and dispersion in small areas＂）, and regional differences （mainly reflected in the regions near the Pearl estuary and on the eastern coast of the delta where urban construction land use expansion and urban agglomeration has been more obvious compared to other regions）; and （3） urban construction land use expansion was closely related to external factors such as economic development and internal factors （e.g., natural conditions and location of the Pearl River Delta region） from 2000 to 2013.