我国沿海港口复杂网络演化特征

China's Coastal Port Complex Network Evolution

基于复杂网络理论,构建以港口吸引度和港口间海运距离双重因素作用下点权有限的加权网络演化模型。选取29个沿海主要港口2015年相关数据,对比演化网络与现实网络的特征指标数据,验证了模型的有效性,将模型应用于预测2018年沿海港口网络,揭示沿海港口网络未来的演化特征,结果显示,港口之间联系紧密程度有所提高,运输效率进一步提升;所有港口的度值都将不同程度增大,使沿海港口网络的连接度和可达性增大;大部分港口将进入更高层级,港口层级结构将升级;港口网络的无序性进一步增强,港口间规模差异减小,港口规模分布更均匀化,港口之间的相互影响能力将下降;港口网络的负向匹配程度将增大,呈向外辐射的状态,即度值大的港口通过集聚效应成为港口群的增长核心后,将凭借其有利条件发挥扩散效应。

Based on the complex network theory, a weighted network evolution model which has limited node weight is set up on the dual basis of the distance and the attraction between ports. We selected relevant data of 29 ports in 2015 and made comparisons between evolution network and practical network in characteristic index data, which verified the validity of the model. Then we applied the model to predict the coastal port network in 2018 and to reveal the future evolution characteristics of costal port network, and the results showed that the lirkage between ports will be strengthened, and the transport efficiency will be further improved; the value of all ports will be increased at different degrees, which will enlarge connectivity and accessibility of the coastal ports network; most ports will enter to a higher level, and the port hierarchy will be upgrading; the disorder of the port network will be enhanced, the size difference between ports will be reduced, the distribution of port scale will be more homogenized, and the mutual influence between ports will be declined; the negative matching degree of port network will be increased, which tends to be an outgoing radiation type, that is to say, after becoming the growth core of the port cluster by aggregation effect, the ports with high degree values will give full play to the ripple effect by virtue of its advantages.