中国农业科研投资结构的时空分异特征及其驱动因素

Spatial-Temporal Difference and Driving Forces of the Structure of Agricultural Research Investment in China

在测算各地区农业科研投资政府、创收、社会三类来源资金比重的基础上,综合运用变异系数、ESDA等方法,定性和定量相结合分析我国农业科研投资结构的空间分异特征,并构建计量经济模型分析其驱动因素。结果表明:1我国农业科研投资社会资金比重变化平稳,而政府资金和创收资金的比重则分别表现为波动上升和波动下降的相对变化趋势,政府资金是农业科研投资的主要来源。2中国农业科研投资结构的绝对差异与相对差异均呈现总体缩小的态势。3政府资金比重高值分布区由2002年的"胡焕庸线"西北部地区扩展到2013年的东南部沿海地区,创收资金恰好相反;而社会资金相对高值省份则由2002年的相互分散分布转为2013年的北方与南方地区集中连片分布。4政府资金比重与人均GDP、第一产业比重显著负相关,农业科技政策促进了政府资金比重的上升,创收资金则正好相反;社会资金比重值分别受到人均GDP的显著正影响和第一产业比重的显著负影响。

This study calculated the proportion of government funds, income creating, social funds of agricultural science research investment in China, analyzed the spatial-temporal difference of the structure of agricultural science research investment by variable coefficient and ESDA related analysis techniques, and explored the driving forces by constructing economic models. Results showed that： （1）the proportion of social funds showed a stable change, while the proportion of government funds and income creating showed a wavelike increase and decrease respectively. The government funds were the main resources of agricultural science research investment in China. （2） The absolute difference and relative difference of agricultural science research investment structure in China were both reducing. （3） The high value of the proportion of government funds was enlarged from the northwest areas of Hu Huan- yong Population Line in 2002, to southeast coastal areas, and the proportion of income creating showed an opposite spatial distribution. The proportion of social funds was relative dispersed in 2002, and changed into concentrated distribution in northern and southern regions in 2013. （4） The proportion of government funds was significant negative correlation with per capita GDP, proportion of primary industry, and positive correlation with agriculture policy, while the proportion of income creating was contrary. The proportion of social funds had significant positive correlation with per capita GDP and significant negative correlation with the proportion of primary industry.