中国及省域经济增长与交通碳排放的脱钩关系研究

Decoupling Between China and Provincial Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions from Transport

基于中国及各省市1994-2012年间的GDP、交通量以及碳排放量等数据为样本,利用Tapio弹性分析法分阶段对经济增长与交通发展(客、货运量)之间的脱钩状态进行分析,并探究了交通碳排放与经济发展之间的联系。研究结果表明:全国及各省市的经济增长与客、货运量在同时段内大部分处于弱脱钩状态;GDP与交通碳排放的弹性结果表明我国交通碳排放量偏大,还没有实现可持续发展的状态;经济与交通量的相互影响作用十分明显,且两者相互制约。

This paper studies the decoupling relationship between and transportation growth （passenger and freight volumes） of different stages in the whole country and 31 provinces using the Tapio Index, based on the data panel of the traffic volumes, transportation carbon emissions and GDP of 1994-2012, and then, explored the links between traffic emissions and economy. The results show that： the economic growth of China and the provinces and the volumes of passengers and freight is mostly in a weak decoupling state in the same time; GDP and transport carbon emissions result shows that transportation carbon emissions in China is too larger, which means that China hasfft reached the state of sustainable development; the mutual influence between economy and traffic is absolutely obvious, and both of them are in mutual restraint.